From 24/7 Wall St. · Chris Lange · · 1m 20s
Thierry Borgeat Charts Chip Stock Cycles
Semiconductor stocks peak every two years, says chart analyst Thierry Borgeat.
In brief
Semiconductor stocks peak every two years, says chart analyst Thierry Borgeat. Thierry Borgeat claims chip stocks peak every two years, with recent drops matching his cycle pattern. Originally reported by 24/7 Wall St..
Thierry Borgeat's Cycle Pattern
Thierry Borgeat shared a weekly chart of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index on X on November 13, 2026, with past cycle tops circled.
“Zoom out, and the panic starts to look familiar.”
Cycle Top Pattern Explained
Look for the little ovals. 2020. 2022. 2024. 2026. Roughly every two years, semiconductors climb into a cycle top, the party gets too loud, and the index falls.
Chip Stocks Drop Hard
Over the past month, NVIDIA fell 28.86%, Applied Materials dropped 21%, Micron Technology lost 19.53%, AMD slipped 12.32%, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing fell 10.74%.
Warning Signs of Peak
Micron's non-GAAP gross margin hit 87.0% in fiscal Q4 2026 versus 45.7% a year earlier, on revenue up 379.3% YoY.
Inventory and Demand Shifts
AMD's inventory rose to $11.46 billion, up 35% sequentially, and DRAM's share of Applied Materials' revenue climbed to 33% from 28%.
Long-Term Cycle Factors
Micron said more than 75% of fiscal 2027 shipments are already committed, and Broadcom forecast fiscal Q4 AI semiconductor revenue to $21.7 billion.
What Holders Need to Track
Memory pricing, inventory conversion, equipment demand, and TSMC monthly sales are key indicators for the cycle's next move.
The big picture
Thierry Borgeat claims chip stocks peak every two years, with recent drops matching his cycle pattern.
