From the Guardian · · 2m
New Zealand election too close to call
Christopher Luxon's National party secured a narrow preliminary majority, but special votes could reshape the government. Official results come November 27.
In brief
Christopher Luxon's National party secured a narrow preliminary majority, but special votes could reshape the government. Official results come November 27. New Zealand's National party won a wafer-thin majority in preliminary results, but the election remains too close to call until special votes are counted on…
National secures narrow lead
Christopher Luxon's centre-right National party won 42 seats on preliminary results, with coalition partners Act and New Zealand First adding 13 and 12 seats respectively. The combined 67-seat majority is wafer thin.
Left bloc falls just short
Labour won 35 seats, the Greens 16 and Te Pāti Māori five. With newcomer Opportunity adding seven seats, the left bloc totals 63 seats, three short of forming a government.
National pipped Labour by tiny margin
National secured 0.02% more of the party vote than Labour. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said results were too close to call and special votes must be counted before negotiations begin.
“too close to call”
Special votes could shift everything
Special votes include overseas ballots and votes cast outside a voter's electorate. In 2023, 600,000 such votes were made, 21% of the total. These votes tend to favour the left.
Opportunity enters parliament for first time
The centrist Opportunity party reached 5.9%, meeting the threshold to enter parliament. Since New Zealand adopted the mixed-member proportional electoral system in 1996, no new party had previously met that threshold.
National gains extra seats from overhang
National won more electorate seats than its party vote entitles it to, gaining an extra five seats. However, four senior ministers including Nicola Willis and Paul Goldsmith will not return to parliament.
Parliament could reach record size
With all extra seats included, the next parliament could have 130 members, a record under mixed-member proportional. This means 65 seats are needed to form a coalition, up from the usual 61.
Official results delayed until late November
Official results will be released on 27 November. The country faces a two-week wait until special votes are announced, followed by the possibility of weeks of negotiations. Caretaker government conventions will apply.
The one thing
New Zealand's National party won a wafer-thin majority in preliminary results, but the election remains too close to call until special votes are counted on November 27.
